Is a recession coming in the US?
Today’s risk according to 17 indicators, explained without jargon.
Data updated October 6, 2026
The short answer, today
Normal
The market is calm: indicators are within their usual range.
The Crisis Monitor index summarizes 17 indicators of the US economy and markets in a number from 0 to 100: below 35 is normal, 35 to 60 is alert and 60 or more is crisis. Data updated October 6, 2026.
Want the details? It is all on the live dashboard.
What do the classic recession signals say?
These are the data points most often cited to tell whether a recession is coming. Some warn months ahead, while others only confirm it once it has started.
| Indicator | Today | Status | When does it move? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession probabilityStatistical model that estimates whether the US is already in recession. | 0.6% | Normal | Moves with the crisis |
| Rise in unemployment (Sahm rule)Triggers when unemployment rises 0.5 points above its low of the past year. | 0.00 | Normal | Moves with the crisis |
| Long vs short rates (3 months)If negative (inverted curve), the market expects a weaker economy. | 1.09% | Normal | Usually warns early |
| Long vs short rates (2 years)The same comparison using the 2-year bond. Its turns have preceded several recessions. | 0.47% | Normal | Usually warns early |
| Unemployment benefit claimsHow much new jobless claims have risen above their low of the past year. | 0.5% | Normal | Usually warns early |
| Factory outputOutput of factories, mines and utilities compared with a year ago. | 1.4% | Normal | Moves with the crisis |
| Store salesSpending in stores compared with a year ago, adjusted for inflation. | 2.5% | Normal | Moves with the crisis |
How is each area of the economy doing?
Score from 0 to 100 for each area. From 66 there is stress.
- Credit2Normal
- Interest rates and cycle7Normal
- Jobs0Normal
- Output and spending13Normal
- Market fear and the dollar11Normal
What did the index show before the latest recessions?
Recalculating the index with the data of each period, this is how it behaved in the four official recessions since 1990:
- 1990-91 recession: moved to Alert in Oct 1990 (3 months after) and reached 64 in Jan 1991.
- Dot-com bubble and 2001 recession: moved to Alert in Apr 2000 (1 month after) and reached 74 in Oct 2001.
- Global Financial Crisis 2007-09: moved to Alert in Nov 2007 (2 months after) and reached 93 in Dec 2008.
- COVID panic 2020: moved to Alert in Mar 2020 (1 month after) and reached 83 in May 2020.
In all four it reached at least Alert, but almost always when the recession was already starting: it is a thermometer of stress, not a crystal ball. More detail in the crises since 1990.
Frequently asked questions
What is a recession?
A significant, widespread decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months: production, employment, income and sales fall. The popular definition of “two consecutive quarters of falling GDP” is only an approximation.
Who decides whether the US is in recession?
The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, a private economic research organization. It announces it months later, when the recession has already started or even ended.
Can a recession be predicted?
Not with certainty. Some data points, such as an inverted yield curve or tightening credit, have warned before many recessions, but they have also given false alarms. That is why Crisis Monitor combines 17 indicators instead of relying on just one.
How often is this page updated?
Market data refreshes every 15 minutes and Federal Reserve data (FRED) every few hours. Some indicators, such as unemployment or industrial production, are published once a month.
What happens to the rest of the world if the US enters a recession?
The US is the world’s largest economy, and its recessions tend to drag other economies down through trade, financial markets and confidence. It does not always happen with the same intensity: it depends on the cause of the crisis and on how central banks respond.
Crisis Monitor is an educational dashboard. It is not a forecast or financial advice: data may arrive late and the thresholds are indicative.