Financial crises since 1990
Nine episodes analyzed with the same 17 indicators: what happened, what the index showed and who warned first.
Updated
Which crises do we analyze?
Since 1990, the US has gone through four official recessions and several sharp stock market falls that did not turn into recessions. We chose nine episodes of both kinds and, for each one, recalculated the Crisis Monitor index week by week using the data available at the time. That lets you see which indicators warned first, which reacted late and how each crisis compares with today’s situation.
- 1990-91 recessionPeak 64 The savings and loan crisis, the invasion of Kuwait and the oil price spike led the US into a short recession between July 1990 and March…
- Russia and LTCM 1998Peak 34.5 In August 1998 Russia defaulted on its debt and the LTCM fund, with enormous leveraged bets, was left on the brink of collapse. The Fed…
- Dot-com bubble and 2001 recessionPeak 74 Tech stocks hit highs in March 2000 and fell for more than two years, until October 2002. Along the way came the official 2001 recession…
- Global Financial Crisis 2007-09Peak 93 Poor-quality mortgages in the US spread to the entire financial system. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 froze global…
- European debt crisis 2011Peak 34.8 Fear of a Greek default and of contagion to Spain and Italy, together with the downgrade of the US credit rating in August 2011, sent…
- 2015-16 market scarePeak 27 China devalued the yuan in August 2015 and oil collapsed, dragging down credit to energy companies. US industry entered recession, but the…
- Q4 2018 sell-offPeak 23 Fed rate hikes and the trade war with China caused a fall of nearly 20% in the S&P 500 in three months. The Fed’s pivot in early 2019…
- COVID panic 2020Peak 83 The pandemic triggered a 34% fall in the S&P 500 in 33 days, the fastest in history, and a recession of only two months (February to April…
- 2022 bear marketPeak 43 The highest inflation in 40 years forced the Fed to raise rates at a record pace. Stocks and bonds fell at the same time and the yield…
How do they compare?
| Crisis | Dates | Official recession? | Index at the start | Peak | First time at Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990-91 recession | Jul 1990 – Mar 1991 | Yes | 16 | 64 · Crisis | Oct 1990 (3 months after) |
| Russia and LTCM 1998 | Jul 1998 – Oct 1998 | No | 15 | 34.5 · Normal | Not reached |
| Dot-com bubble and 2001 recession | Mar 2000 – Oct 2002 | Yes | 24 | 74 · Crisis | Apr 2000 (1 month after) |
| Global Financial Crisis 2007-09 | Oct 2007 – Jun 2009 | Yes | 22 | 93 · Crisis | Nov 2007 (2 months after) |
| European debt crisis 2011 | Apr 2011 – Oct 2011 | No | 7 | 34.8 · Normal | Jun 2010 (11 months before) |
| 2015-16 market scare | May 2015 – Feb 2016 | No | 10 | 27 · Normal | Not reached |
| Q4 2018 sell-off | Sep 2018 – Dec 2018 | No | 5 | 23 · Normal | Not reached |
| COVID panic 2020 | Feb 2020 – May 2020 | Yes | 18 | 83 · Crisis | Mar 2020 (1 month after) |
| 2022 bear market | Jan 2022 – Dec 2022 | No | 4 | 43 · Alert | Jan 2021 (12+ months before) |
“Official recession”: according to the NBER, between six months before the start and the end of the episode. The index runs from 0 to 100: Alert from 35 and Crisis from 60.
What do they teach us?
- Credit and real-economy crises show up much more clearly. 4 of the 9 episodes coincided with a recession, and in all of them the index reached Alert. In short stock market drops without a recession (2011, 2015-16, 2018) the signal was much milder.
- The yield curve is the one that moves earliest, often a year or more ahead, but it also gave a warning in 2022 without a recession following.
- Stock market fear (VIX) and unemployment tend to arrive at the same time or late: they are better for confirming a crisis than for anticipating it.
- Since 1990 the index has never reached Crisis level outside a real crisis. But these are few crises from which to draw firm conclusions: it is a reconstruction made after the fact.
The week-by-week chart of the index since 1990 is on the main dashboard. And today? See whether a recession is coming.