US industrial production (YoY)
Factory output. Output and spending.
Updated
What is it?
How much more (or less) US factories, mines and utilities produce than a year ago.
Year-over-year change in US industrial production. It is one of the series the NBER watches to date recessions.
Why does it matter?
If it falls, the real economy is slowing down.
When should it be a concern?
It is a concern when factories are producing less than a year ago. Crisis Monitor turns each reading into a score from 0 to 100 using these bands:
| Situation | Value | What does it mean? |
|---|---|---|
| Calm | ≥ 2.0% | Score 0: no stress |
| Watch | ≤ 0.5% | Score 33: starts to draw attention |
| Stress | ≤ -1.5% | Score 66: risk zone |
| Extreme | ≤ -6.0% | Score 100: like in the worst crises |
Between one band and the next, the score is interpolated.
Industrial production (YoY) in past crises
Since January 1990, its weekly low was -17.3% (May 2020) and its high was 16.6% (May 2021). The typical level (the median) is 2.2%.
| Crisis | At the start | Low during the crisis |
|---|---|---|
| 1990-91 recession | 1.4% | -2.6% (Mar 1991) |
| Russia and LTCM 1998 | 7.2% | 4.8% (Aug 1998) |
| Dot-com bubble and 2001 recession | 4.6% | -5.0% (Dec 2001) |
| Global Financial Crisis 2007-09 | 2.4% | -15.2% (Jun 2009) |
| European debt crisis 2011 | 4.2% | 2.2% (Jun 2011) |
| 2015-16 market scare | -0.0% | -4.5% (Jan 2016) |
| Q4 2018 sell-off | 3.3% | 2.8% (Dec 2018) |
| COVID panic 2020 | -2.3% | -17.3% (May 2020) |
| 2022 bear market | 3.9% | 0.1% (Dec 2022) |
Weekly data. Crises that do not appear predate the series.
How does Crisis Monitor use it?
- Area: Activity and spending (15% of the index). How much factories produce, how much people buy and how they feel.
- When does it move? Moves with the crisis.
- Data frequency: monthly.
- Quick alarm: No.
The index combines 17 indicators. See the methodology to learn how it is calculated.
Data source
FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (INDPRO). Data may arrive late and does not constitute financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
What does industrial production measure?
What US factories, mines and utilities produce. Crisis Monitor uses its change compared with the same month a year earlier.
Does a fall in industrial production mean recession?
Not always. In 2015-16 there was an industrial recession without a general recession. It is more worrying when it coincides with falls in employment and spending.