US real retail sales (YoY)
Store sales. Output and spending.
Updated
What is it?
How much more (or less) is being spent in stores than a year ago, adjusted for inflation.
Year-over-year change in US real retail sales. It reflects consumer spending, two thirds of GDP.
Why does it matter?
Consumer spending is two thirds of the US economy: if it falls, the rest suffers.
When should it be a concern?
It is a concern when people are spending less in stores than a year ago. Crisis Monitor turns each reading into a score from 0 to 100 using these bands:
| Situation | Value | What does it mean? |
|---|---|---|
| Calm | ≥ 2.5% | Score 0: no stress |
| Watch | ≤ 1.0% | Score 33: starts to draw attention |
| Stress | ≤ -1.0% | Score 66: risk zone |
| Extreme | ≤ -5.0% | Score 100: like in the worst crises |
Between one band and the next, the score is interpolated.
Real retail sales (YoY) in past crises
Since February 1993, its weekly low was -19.9% (May 2020) and its high was 45.8% (May 2021). The typical level (the median) is 2.2%.
| Crisis | At the start | Low during the crisis |
|---|---|---|
| Russia and LTCM 1998 | 4.2% | 1.4% (Sep 1998) |
| Dot-com bubble and 2001 recession | 5.9% | -3.2% (Oct 2001) |
| Global Financial Crisis 2007-09 | 1.0% | -11.4% (Jan 2009) |
| European debt crisis 2011 | 4.1% | 3.4% (May 2011) |
| 2015-16 market scare | 3.0% | 1.2% (Dec 2015) |
| Q4 2018 sell-off | 3.1% | 1.0% (Oct 2018) |
| COVID panic 2020 | 3.1% | -19.9% (May 2020) |
| 2022 bear market | 9.5% | -1.5% (Dec 2022) |
Weekly data. Crises that do not appear predate the series.
How does Crisis Monitor use it?
- Area: Activity and spending (15% of the index). How much factories produce, how much people buy and how they feel.
- When does it move? Moves with the crisis.
- Data frequency: monthly.
- Quick alarm: No.
The index combines 17 indicators. See the methodology to learn how it is calculated.
Data source
FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (RRSFS). Data may arrive late and does not constitute financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Why do retail sales matter?
Because household spending accounts for about two thirds of US GDP. If people stop buying, the economy slows.
What does “real” mean?
That inflation is stripped out. That shows whether people are buying more things, not just paying more for the same ones.