Weekly unemployment benefit claims
Unemployment benefit claims. Jobs.
Updated
What is it?
How many people file for unemployment benefits each week, compared with the low of the past year.
4-week average of initial jobless claims, measured as the rise above its 52-week low. Weekly data, faster than monthly unemployment.
Why does it matter?
If they rise quickly, companies are laying people off. It is a weekly warning, faster than monthly unemployment.
When should it be a concern?
It is a concern when more people are claiming unemployment benefits. Crisis Monitor turns each reading into a score from 0 to 100 using these bands:
| Situation | Value | What does it mean? |
|---|---|---|
| Calm | ≤ 6.0% | Score 0: no stress |
| Watch | ≥ 15.0% | Score 33: starts to draw attention |
| Stress | ≥ 25.0% | Score 66: risk zone |
| Extreme | ≥ 60.0% | Score 100: like in the worst crises |
Between one band and the next, the score is interpolated.
Jobless claims in past crises
Since January 1990, its weekly low was 0.0% (Jun 1992) and its high was 2,457.8% (Apr 2020). The typical level (the median) is 4.4%.
| Crisis | At the start | High during the crisis |
|---|---|---|
| 1990-91 recession | 9.3% | 45.0% (Mar 1991) |
| Russia and LTCM 1998 | 14.0% | 14.0% (Jul 1998) |
| Dot-com bubble and 2001 recession | 3.2% | 62.5% (Oct 2001) |
| Global Financial Crisis 2007-09 | 3.7% | 85.9% (Mar 2009) |
| European debt crisis 2011 | 2.4% | 9.0% (May 2011) |
| 2015-16 market scare | 0.0% | 6.1% (Feb 2016) |
| Q4 2018 sell-off | 0.0% | 12.1% (Dec 2018) |
| COVID panic 2020 | 4.2% | 2,457.8% (Apr 2020) |
| 2022 bear market | 0.0% | 11.8% (Feb 2022) |
Weekly data. Crises that do not appear predate the series.
How does Crisis Monitor use it?
- Area: Labor market (20% of the index). Whether people are starting to lose their jobs. It is what you notice most in real life.
- When does it move? Usually warns early.
- Data frequency: weekly.
- Quick alarm: No.
The index combines 17 indicators. See the methodology to learn how it is calculated.
Data source
FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (IC4WSA). Data may arrive late and does not constitute financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
What are initial jobless claims?
The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the US each week. It is published every Thursday.
Why are they used to detect recessions?
Because they are published every week and react before the monthly unemployment rate. Crisis Monitor measures how much their 4-week average has risen above the low of the past year.